From left: Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Halla Tómasdóttir, and Katrín Jakobsdóttir. Photographer: Art Bicnick

Presidential candidates Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Halla Tómasdóttir, and Katrín Jakobsdóttir all enjoy over 20% voter support according to the latest Prósent poll conducted for Morgunblaðið. All three measured between 20.1% to 21% support, a statistically negligible difference considering the margin of error for all three figures lies between 18.1% to 23.2%. The closeness in the running makes for an exciting election day on June 1, where a handful of votes could potentially determine the outcome.

The polling took place between last Tuesday, May 21 and yesterday, May 26. Halla Hrund scored highest at 21% while Halla Tómasdóttir enjoyed 20.2% support and Katrín Jakobsdóttir 20.1%. Katín’s support waned slightly as compared to the previous week’s poll, while both Halla Hrund and Halla Tómasdóttir gained following. The fourth most popular candidate in the poll is Baldur Þórhallsson, with 16.9%, followed by Jón Gnarr with 11.4% and Arnar Þór Jónsson with 6.4%.

Respondents were not only asked who they plan to vote for but also who they believed would win the election to become Iceland’s next president. Nearly 45% believe that Katrín Jakobsdóttir is most likely to win the election, double that of the next candidate, Halla Hrund. Fewer believed that Baldur or Halla Tómasdóttir would win the election than said they would vote for those candidates.

Fewer voting in advance

Advance voting stations have been open since May 3 in Iceland, and over 16,300 have already voted, more than 10,600 of them in the capital area, RÚV reports. That is fewer than voted in advance in Iceland’s last presidential election, in 2020. However, it bears noting that the last election took place in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, when more people aimed to avoid crowds on election day. The date of the presidential election, which used to take place at the end of June, has also been shifted to the beginning of the month, making it likely that fewer voters will be away on summer vacation on election day.

Read more about the five highest-polling presidential candidates.